Avengers: Doomsday commands the market at 74.5% implied probability thanks to its confirmed December 18, 2026 release as the year’s marquee MCU crossover event starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom. Traders cite the franchise’s history of record-breaking holiday openings and sustained audience anticipation for a massive ensemble spectacle. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds second place at 17.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s proven draw, yet faces earlier summer competition that historically limits domestic debuts compared with December tentpoles. Lower-priced options like Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah trail because their mid-year or earlier positioning and less crossover appeal cap opening-weekend ceilings relative to Avengers-level events. Market focus now shifts to summer tracking updates and any late casting or marketing reveals that could influence momentum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFilm mana yang memiliki akhir pekan pembukaan terbesar di tahun 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 75%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 18%
Toy Story 5 3.1%
Dune: Messiah 1.8%
$1,571,236 Vol.
$1,571,236 Vol.
Avengers: Doomsday
75%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
18%
Toy Story 5
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
The Odyssey
1%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Film Super Mario Galaxy
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 75%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 18%
Toy Story 5 3.1%
Dune: Messiah 1.8%
$1,571,236 Vol.
$1,571,236 Vol.
Avengers: Doomsday
75%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
18%
Toy Story 5
3%
Dune: Messiah
2%
The Odyssey
1%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Film Super Mario Galaxy
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Avengers: Doomsday commands the market at 74.5% implied probability thanks to its confirmed December 18, 2026 release as the year’s marquee MCU crossover event starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom. Traders cite the franchise’s history of record-breaking holiday openings and sustained audience anticipation for a massive ensemble spectacle. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds second place at 17.5% on the strength of its July 31 slot and Tom Holland’s proven draw, yet faces earlier summer competition that historically limits domestic debuts compared with December tentpoles. Lower-priced options like Toy Story 5 and Dune: Messiah trail because their mid-year or earlier positioning and less crossover appeal cap opening-weekend ceilings relative to Avengers-level events. Market focus now shifts to summer tracking updates and any late casting or marketing reveals that could influence momentum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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