Traders assign a 98.6% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because the remaining window is only three days and no active diplomatic process or preparatory signals point to an imminent signing. Recent assessments rank Kuwait, Lebanon, and Syria as longer-term prospects while Saudi Arabia faces ongoing regional tensions and preconditioned talks that have produced no breakthrough. Kazakhstan’s announced accession remains at the planning stage with a ceremony floated for later dates. Diplomatic normalization typically follows extended negotiations, public coordination, and formal ceremonies, none of which are scheduled or indicated in the immediate term. The sole realistic pathway for a shift would be an unanticipated last-minute announcement by one of the prospective states, an event for which no credible indicators currently exist.