Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University project a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only two major hurricanes expected amid anticipated El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. This aligns with the market-implied 36.5% chance of at least one Category 4 landfall on the U.S. coast before 2027, reflecting reduced intensification potential and a 32% probability of any major (Category 3–5) U.S. landfall according to long-term analogs. Warmer western Atlantic sea surface temperatures offer limited counterbalance against cooler central waters and neutral-to-El Niño ENSO transition. The National Hurricane Center begins routine outlooks this week, with NOAA’s official seasonal release due May 21, providing key updates for traders assessing steering patterns and landfall windows through November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$327,991 Vol.
$327,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$327,991 Vol.
$327,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University project a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only two major hurricanes expected amid anticipated El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. This aligns with the market-implied 36.5% chance of at least one Category 4 landfall on the U.S. coast before 2027, reflecting reduced intensification potential and a 32% probability of any major (Category 3–5) U.S. landfall according to long-term analogs. Warmer western Atlantic sea surface temperatures offer limited counterbalance against cooler central waters and neutral-to-El Niño ENSO transition. The National Hurricane Center begins routine outlooks this week, with NOAA’s official seasonal release due May 21, providing key updates for traders assessing steering patterns and landfall windows through November.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,991Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University project a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only two major hurricanes expected amid anticipated El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. This aligns with the market-implied 36.5% chance of at least one Category 4 landfall on the U.S. coast before 2027, reflecting reduced intensification potential and a 32% probability of any major (Category 3–5) U.S. landfall according to long-term analogs. Warmer western Atlantic sea surface temperatures offer limited counterbalance against cooler central waters and neutral-to-El Niño ENSO transition. The National Hurricane Center begins routine outlooks this week, with NOAA’s official seasonal release due May 21, providing key updates for traders assessing steering patterns and landfall windows through November.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,991Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University project a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with only two major hurricanes expected amid anticipated El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. This aligns with the market-implied 36.5% chance of at least one Category 4 landfall on the U.S. coast before 2027, reflecting reduced intensification potential and a 32% probability of any major (Category 3–5) U.S. landfall according to long-term analogs. Warmer western Atlantic sea surface temperatures offer limited counterbalance against cooler central waters and neutral-to-El Niño ENSO transition. The National Hurricane Center begins routine outlooks this week, with NOAA’s official seasonal release due May 21, providing key updates for traders assessing steering patterns and landfall windows through November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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