Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.8% for no named storm forming before the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) inaugural daily Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing zero disturbances with tropical cyclone formation potential across the basin. Current satellite imagery and model ensembles from NOAA reveal no organized areas of low pressure, suppressed by high wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C thresholds for sustained development, and dry mid-level air. Climatologically, the first named storm averages around June 20, with pre-season formations rare despite occasional early outliers in recent years like 2020's Arthur. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen Invest area in daily NHC updates through May, but forecast consensus indicates negligible risk.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$340,874 Vol.
$340,874 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$340,874 Vol.
$340,874 Vol.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.8% for no named storm forming before the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) inaugural daily Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing zero disturbances with tropical cyclone formation potential across the basin. Current satellite imagery and model ensembles from NOAA reveal no organized areas of low pressure, suppressed by high wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C thresholds for sustained development, and dry mid-level air. Climatologically, the first named storm averages around June 20, with pre-season formations rare despite occasional early outliers in recent years like 2020's Arthur. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen Invest area in daily NHC updates through May, but forecast consensus indicates negligible risk.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$340,874Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.8% for no named storm forming before the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) inaugural daily Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing zero disturbances with tropical cyclone formation potential across the basin. Current satellite imagery and model ensembles from NOAA reveal no organized areas of low pressure, suppressed by high wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C thresholds for sustained development, and dry mid-level air. Climatologically, the first named storm averages around June 20, with pre-season formations rare despite occasional early outliers in recent years like 2020's Arthur. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen Invest area in daily NHC updates through May, but forecast consensus indicates negligible risk.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$340,874Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.8% for no named storm forming before the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) inaugural daily Tropical Weather Outlook on May 15 showing zero disturbances with tropical cyclone formation potential across the basin. Current satellite imagery and model ensembles from NOAA reveal no organized areas of low pressure, suppressed by high wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C thresholds for sustained development, and dry mid-level air. Climatologically, the first named storm averages around June 20, with pre-season formations rare despite occasional early outliers in recent years like 2020's Arthur. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen Invest area in daily NHC updates through May, but forecast consensus indicates negligible risk.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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