Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 2026 launch. The company has introduced a new model each September since 2007, with development and supply-chain timelines already aligned for the successor to the iPhone 17. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a different cadence or skipped year. While technical hurdles in semiconductor fabrication, software integration, or unexpected regulatory hurdles around hardware components could theoretically cause slippage, historical precedent and Apple's manufacturing scale make such disruptions improbable before year-end. Traders are effectively pricing in the continuation of a decades-long pattern rather than any specific new announcement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui99% peluang
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
99% peluang
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 2026 launch. The company has introduced a new model each September since 2007, with development and supply-chain timelines already aligned for the successor to the iPhone 17. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a different cadence or skipped year. While technical hurdles in semiconductor fabrication, software integration, or unexpected regulatory hurdles around hardware components could theoretically cause slippage, historical precedent and Apple's manufacturing scale make such disruptions improbable before year-end. Traders are effectively pricing in the continuation of a decades-long pattern rather than any specific new announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,240Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 2026 launch. The company has introduced a new model each September since 2007, with development and supply-chain timelines already aligned for the successor to the iPhone 17. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a different cadence or skipped year. While technical hurdles in semiconductor fabrication, software integration, or unexpected regulatory hurdles around hardware components could theoretically cause slippage, historical precedent and Apple's manufacturing scale make such disruptions improbable before year-end. Traders are effectively pricing in the continuation of a decades-long pattern rather than any specific new announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,240Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds of 98.6% for a 2026 launch. The company has introduced a new model each September since 2007, with development and supply-chain timelines already aligned for the successor to the iPhone 17. No official statements or credible supply-chain reports indicate a shift to a different cadence or skipped year. While technical hurdles in semiconductor fabrication, software integration, or unexpected regulatory hurdles around hardware components could theoretically cause slippage, historical precedent and Apple's manufacturing scale make such disruptions improbable before year-end. Traders are effectively pricing in the continuation of a decades-long pattern rather than any specific new announcement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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