**PVQ (Parti Vert du Québec) faces negligible prospects of winning a seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability for “No.”** Recent provincial polls from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis show the party’s support at or below 1-2% (often grouped with “others”), far behind the Parti Québécois (28-30%), CAQ (23-27%), PLQ (20-22%), PCQ (14-16%), and Québec solidaire (9-10%). Seat projections from 338Canada, Qc125, and The Writ allocate zero seats to PVQ while distributing dozens among the five established parties in a fragmented field. The Green Party lacks incumbents, regional strongholds, or measurable momentum amid voter focus on sovereignty, economic pressures, and trade issues. Its limited organization and historical inability to break through in first-past-the-post ridings reinforce the low implied probability. No recent polling shifts or campaign developments have altered this positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3% peluang
BARU
BARU
Oct 5, 2026
3% peluang
BARU
BARU
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**PVQ (Parti Vert du Québec) faces negligible prospects of winning a seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability for “No.”** Recent provincial polls from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis show the party’s support at or below 1-2% (often grouped with “others”), far behind the Parti Québécois (28-30%), CAQ (23-27%), PLQ (20-22%), PCQ (14-16%), and Québec solidaire (9-10%). Seat projections from 338Canada, Qc125, and The Writ allocate zero seats to PVQ while distributing dozens among the five established parties in a fragmented field. The Green Party lacks incumbents, regional strongholds, or measurable momentum amid voter focus on sovereignty, economic pressures, and trade issues. Its limited organization and historical inability to break through in first-past-the-post ridings reinforce the low implied probability. No recent polling shifts or campaign developments have altered this positioning.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$203Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**PVQ (Parti Vert du Québec) faces negligible prospects of winning a seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability for “No.”** Recent provincial polls from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis show the party’s support at or below 1-2% (often grouped with “others”), far behind the Parti Québécois (28-30%), CAQ (23-27%), PLQ (20-22%), PCQ (14-16%), and Québec solidaire (9-10%). Seat projections from 338Canada, Qc125, and The Writ allocate zero seats to PVQ while distributing dozens among the five established parties in a fragmented field. The Green Party lacks incumbents, regional strongholds, or measurable momentum amid voter focus on sovereignty, economic pressures, and trade issues. Its limited organization and historical inability to break through in first-past-the-post ridings reinforce the low implied probability. No recent polling shifts or campaign developments have altered this positioning.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$203Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**PVQ (Parti Vert du Québec) faces negligible prospects of winning a seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability for “No.”** Recent provincial polls from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis show the party’s support at or below 1-2% (often grouped with “others”), far behind the Parti Québécois (28-30%), CAQ (23-27%), PLQ (20-22%), PCQ (14-16%), and Québec solidaire (9-10%). Seat projections from 338Canada, Qc125, and The Writ allocate zero seats to PVQ while distributing dozens among the five established parties in a fragmented field. The Green Party lacks incumbents, regional strongholds, or measurable momentum amid voter focus on sovereignty, economic pressures, and trade issues. Its limited organization and historical inability to break through in first-past-the-post ridings reinforce the low implied probability. No recent polling shifts or campaign developments have altered this positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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