Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the CAQ, PLQ, and other parties but short of levels needed for a clear majority of 64 seats in the 125-seat National Assembly. Seat projection models including 338Canada, Qc125, The Writ, and Poliwave currently center PQ outcomes around 46-52 seats, with wide ranges reflecting many competitive ridings, particularly against the CAQ, and variable vote efficiency outside urban centers. This distribution drives the highest implied probabilities toward fewer than 50 seats or the low 50s, while scenarios above 60 remain possible but less likely absent further shifts in francophone support or turnout patterns before election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui<50 41%
50-54 14%
55-59 14%
65-69 6.7%
$16,645 Vol.
$16,645 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<50
41%
50-54
14%
55-59
11%
60-64
12%
65-69
7%
70-74
5%
75-79
4%
80+
4%
<50 41%
50-54 14%
55-59 14%
65-69 6.7%
$16,645 Vol.
$16,645 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$5,078 Vol.
41%
50-54
$1,395 Vol.
14%
55-59
$852 Vol.
11%
60-64
$993 Vol.
12%
65-69
$3,282 Vol.
7%
70-74
$2,651 Vol.
5%
75-79
$1,290 Vol.
4%
80+
$1,104 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the CAQ, PLQ, and other parties but short of levels needed for a clear majority of 64 seats in the 125-seat National Assembly. Seat projection models including 338Canada, Qc125, The Writ, and Poliwave currently center PQ outcomes around 46-52 seats, with wide ranges reflecting many competitive ridings, particularly against the CAQ, and variable vote efficiency outside urban centers. This distribution drives the highest implied probabilities toward fewer than 50 seats or the low 50s, while scenarios above 60 remain possible but less likely absent further shifts in francophone support or turnout patterns before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$16,645Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the CAQ, PLQ, and other parties but short of levels needed for a clear majority of 64 seats in the 125-seat National Assembly. Seat projection models including 338Canada, Qc125, The Writ, and Poliwave currently center PQ outcomes around 46-52 seats, with wide ranges reflecting many competitive ridings, particularly against the CAQ, and variable vote efficiency outside urban centers. This distribution drives the highest implied probabilities toward fewer than 50 seats or the low 50s, while scenarios above 60 remain possible but less likely absent further shifts in francophone support or turnout patterns before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$16,645Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the CAQ, PLQ, and other parties but short of levels needed for a clear majority of 64 seats in the 125-seat National Assembly. Seat projection models including 338Canada, Qc125, The Writ, and Poliwave currently center PQ outcomes around 46-52 seats, with wide ranges reflecting many competitive ridings, particularly against the CAQ, and variable vote efficiency outside urban centers. This distribution drives the highest implied probabilities toward fewer than 50 seats or the low 50s, while scenarios above 60 remain possible but less likely absent further shifts in francophone support or turnout patterns before election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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