**Strong theatrical legs and record domestic performance have positioned Spider-Man: Brand New Day as the highest-grossing film ever in the U.S. and Canada, yet its late-run trajectory makes a $1 billion domestic finish unlikely.** Released July 31, 2026, the Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Marvel-Sony title opened to a massive $360 million domestically and quickly surpassed Star Wars: The Force Awakens to claim the all-time domestic crown with roughly $955 million earned through early October. However, weekly grosses have declined sharply—recent frames fell below $10 million amid screen reductions and normal hold patterns—leaving the film tracking toward a final domestic total near $960 million. A potential re-release with additional footage has been reported but remains unconfirmed in timing or scale sufficient to close the gap. Traders assign an 89% implied probability to “No” because the film’s exceptional early momentum and audience retention have already been priced in, while the remaining weeks offer limited upside against historical precedents for superhero hold patterns. Key upcoming catalysts include any official re-release announcements and final weekly tracking updates before the year-end.