xAI's Grok models currently sit at 12-14% accuracy on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Tiers 1-3, a set of 300 unpublished, research-level math problems designed to resist data contamination and require hours or days of expert effort per question. This places them well behind leaders like OpenAI's o-series variants and GPT-5 iterations, which have posted scores in the mid-20s to low-50s in recent independent evaluations. With only days remaining until the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline and no confirmed Grok updates or capability jumps announced in the past month, trader sentiment reflects the narrow window for any rapid improvement. Competitive dynamics in advanced reasoning benchmarks continue to favor labs with stronger demonstrated tool use and scaling on math-specific tasks, though xAI's focus on unique problem-solving strengths has occasionally yielded novel solves on FrontierMath.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$24,212 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
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$24,212 Vol.
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$3,642 Vol.
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$423 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models currently sit at 12-14% accuracy on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Tiers 1-3, a set of 300 unpublished, research-level math problems designed to resist data contamination and require hours or days of expert effort per question. This places them well behind leaders like OpenAI's o-series variants and GPT-5 iterations, which have posted scores in the mid-20s to low-50s in recent independent evaluations. With only days remaining until the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline and no confirmed Grok updates or capability jumps announced in the past month, trader sentiment reflects the narrow window for any rapid improvement. Competitive dynamics in advanced reasoning benchmarks continue to favor labs with stronger demonstrated tool use and scaling on math-specific tasks, though xAI's focus on unique problem-solving strengths has occasionally yielded novel solves on FrontierMath.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$24,212Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models currently sit at 12-14% accuracy on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Tiers 1-3, a set of 300 unpublished, research-level math problems designed to resist data contamination and require hours or days of expert effort per question. This places them well behind leaders like OpenAI's o-series variants and GPT-5 iterations, which have posted scores in the mid-20s to low-50s in recent independent evaluations. With only days remaining until the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline and no confirmed Grok updates or capability jumps announced in the past month, trader sentiment reflects the narrow window for any rapid improvement. Competitive dynamics in advanced reasoning benchmarks continue to favor labs with stronger demonstrated tool use and scaling on math-specific tasks, though xAI's focus on unique problem-solving strengths has occasionally yielded novel solves on FrontierMath.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,212Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok models currently sit at 12-14% accuracy on Epoch AI's FrontierMath Tiers 1-3, a set of 300 unpublished, research-level math problems designed to resist data contamination and require hours or days of expert effort per question. This places them well behind leaders like OpenAI's o-series variants and GPT-5 iterations, which have posted scores in the mid-20s to low-50s in recent independent evaluations. With only days remaining until the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline and no confirmed Grok updates or capability jumps announced in the past month, trader sentiment reflects the narrow window for any rapid improvement. Competitive dynamics in advanced reasoning benchmarks continue to favor labs with stronger demonstrated tool use and scaling on math-specific tasks, though xAI's focus on unique problem-solving strengths has occasionally yielded novel solves on FrontierMath.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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