Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stems from the global recurrence interval of roughly one to three such events per century, driven by the need for centuries of strain accumulation along major subduction zones before megathrust rupture. No 9.0+ events have occurred since the 2011 Tohoku quake, and 2026 activity has remained below magnitude 8.0 despite several 7.4–7.8 quakes monitored by the USGS. With only months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date, the absence of precursor signals such as accelerated slip or unusual foreshock sequences in high-risk regions like the Nankai Trough or Cascadia further supports the market-implied odds. A sudden shift could occur only if new seismic or geodetic data from agencies like the USGS revealed rapid stress transfer in a locked megathrust segment capable of producing a full-margin rupture.