**No at 73.5% reflects the recent completion of the Clacton by-election on 13 August 2026.** Nigel Farage resigned his seat in early July to trigger the contest amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared financial support, then won re-election with 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface (26.9%) and dozens of fringe contenders. Major parties boycotted the poll, resulting in low turnout of 44.4%. Farage has now resumed his role as MP for the constituency he has held since the 2024 general election. The investigation has restarted following his return, yet no public statements, procedural deadlines, or other catalysts point to an imminent further resignation or vacancy before the end of 2026. UK by-elections require a specific trigger such as death, disqualification, or voluntary resignation; none of these appear imminent for the sitting Reform UK MP. Traders therefore price in low probability of a second by-election this calendar year, consistent with the absence of fresh developments that would force another vacancy. Historical patterns show MPs rarely trigger repeat contests in quick succession without compelling new circumstances.