The new Senate composition, set to take office in February 2027 following October 2026 elections, has produced around 49 senators open to impeachment proceedings against STF justices, falling short of the 54-vote threshold and facing ongoing quorum disputes from prior rulings. Current Senate leadership has shelved over 100 pending requests, and no removal process has advanced in the remaining weeks of 2026. Traders assign a 96.9% implied probability to no removal by year-end because procedural timelines, institutional checks, and the absence of immediate catalysts limit action before the calendar turns. Late developments such as rapid Senate rule changes, an unexpected presidential transition outcome, or escalation in existing judicial controversies could still compress the window, though these remain low-probability shifts within the tight timeframe.