The high probability for "No" on Maduro being found guilty of all counts reflects the substantial evidentiary and procedural hurdles in the Southern District of New York prosecution. Nicolás Maduro was captured during a U.S. military operation in Caracas in January 2026 and transferred to federal custody on narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation charges originally filed in 2020. After pleading not guilty at arraignment, defense efforts have focused on motions to dismiss and disputes over Venezuelan government funding for legal representation, with a key June 30 hearing still pending. Narcoterrorism cases under 21 U.S.C. § 960a have historically shown low conviction rates at trial due to challenges in linking foreign officials to specific trafficking networks and establishing witness credibility across international borders. Ongoing pretrial restrictions on evidence and protections for potential witnesses further underscore the barriers to securing unanimous guilty verdicts on every count.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$102,591 Vol.
$102,591 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Sì
$102,591 Vol.
$102,591 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high probability for "No" on Maduro being found guilty of all counts reflects the substantial evidentiary and procedural hurdles in the Southern District of New York prosecution. Nicolás Maduro was captured during a U.S. military operation in Caracas in January 2026 and transferred to federal custody on narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation charges originally filed in 2020. After pleading not guilty at arraignment, defense efforts have focused on motions to dismiss and disputes over Venezuelan government funding for legal representation, with a key June 30 hearing still pending. Narcoterrorism cases under 21 U.S.C. § 960a have historically shown low conviction rates at trial due to challenges in linking foreign officials to specific trafficking networks and establishing witness credibility across international borders. Ongoing pretrial restrictions on evidence and protections for potential witnesses further underscore the barriers to securing unanimous guilty verdicts on every count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$102,591Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high probability for "No" on Maduro being found guilty of all counts reflects the substantial evidentiary and procedural hurdles in the Southern District of New York prosecution. Nicolás Maduro was captured during a U.S. military operation in Caracas in January 2026 and transferred to federal custody on narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation charges originally filed in 2020. After pleading not guilty at arraignment, defense efforts have focused on motions to dismiss and disputes over Venezuelan government funding for legal representation, with a key June 30 hearing still pending. Narcoterrorism cases under 21 U.S.C. § 960a have historically shown low conviction rates at trial due to challenges in linking foreign officials to specific trafficking networks and establishing witness credibility across international borders. Ongoing pretrial restrictions on evidence and protections for potential witnesses further underscore the barriers to securing unanimous guilty verdicts on every count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$102,591Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high probability for "No" on Maduro being found guilty of all counts reflects the substantial evidentiary and procedural hurdles in the Southern District of New York prosecution. Nicolás Maduro was captured during a U.S. military operation in Caracas in January 2026 and transferred to federal custody on narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation charges originally filed in 2020. After pleading not guilty at arraignment, defense efforts have focused on motions to dismiss and disputes over Venezuelan government funding for legal representation, with a key June 30 hearing still pending. Narcoterrorism cases under 21 U.S.C. § 960a have historically shown low conviction rates at trial due to challenges in linking foreign officials to specific trafficking networks and establishing witness credibility across international borders. Ongoing pretrial restrictions on evidence and protections for potential witnesses further underscore the barriers to securing unanimous guilty verdicts on every count.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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