Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance any of the multiple impeachment petitions filed against STF justices, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes and recommendations from the April 2026 congressional inquiry commission report on the Banco Master scandal that named Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Mendes further raised procedural barriers by limiting initiation to the prosecutor general and requiring a two-thirds Senate majority for proceedings to begin. These high constitutional thresholds have never produced a removal since the court’s creation, and no scheduled votes or committee reviews are underway ahead of the 2026 elections. Traders therefore assign a 94 percent implied probability that no STF justice will be impeached and removed before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$70,813 Vol.
$70,813 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$70,813 Vol.
$70,813 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance any of the multiple impeachment petitions filed against STF justices, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes and recommendations from the April 2026 congressional inquiry commission report on the Banco Master scandal that named Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Mendes further raised procedural barriers by limiting initiation to the prosecutor general and requiring a two-thirds Senate majority for proceedings to begin. These high constitutional thresholds have never produced a removal since the court’s creation, and no scheduled votes or committee reviews are underway ahead of the 2026 elections. Traders therefore assign a 94 percent implied probability that no STF justice will be impeached and removed before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$70,813Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance any of the multiple impeachment petitions filed against STF justices, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes and recommendations from the April 2026 congressional inquiry commission report on the Banco Master scandal that named Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Mendes further raised procedural barriers by limiting initiation to the prosecutor general and requiring a two-thirds Senate majority for proceedings to begin. These high constitutional thresholds have never produced a removal since the court’s creation, and no scheduled votes or committee reviews are underway ahead of the 2026 elections. Traders therefore assign a 94 percent implied probability that no STF justice will be impeached and removed before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$70,813Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance any of the multiple impeachment petitions filed against STF justices, including those targeting Alexandre de Moraes and recommendations from the April 2026 congressional inquiry commission report on the Banco Master scandal that named Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Mendes further raised procedural barriers by limiting initiation to the prosecutor general and requiring a two-thirds Senate majority for proceedings to begin. These high constitutional thresholds have never produced a removal since the court’s creation, and no scheduled votes or committee reviews are underway ahead of the 2026 elections. Traders therefore assign a 94 percent implied probability that no STF justice will be impeached and removed before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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