**Digger** opened to a dismal $8 million domestically last weekend, the lowest for a Tom Cruise vehicle in nearly two decades, amid poor reviews, a C/C+ CinemaScore, and mixed audience response to its R-rated satire on an oil tycoon facing ecological disaster. That steep first-week drop—exceeding 50% midweek—sets up a sharp second-weekend decline, with traders favoring the 3–5 million range as the most likely outcome. Limited word-of-mouth, heavy competition from holdovers like *Verity* and *Resident Evil*, and the film’s already-evident lack of broad appeal create tight 4–5 million versus 3–4 million probabilities. A modest uptick in daily tracking or any positive late buzz could push it toward the higher band, while continued erosion would favor the lower one.