The commencement of Duane “Keffe D” Davis’s murder trial in Las Vegas this week has anchored trader sentiment around a 64.5% implied probability of conviction. Prosecutors opened by highlighting Davis’s own prior admissions—including 1990s interviews and his 2019 memoir—positioning him as the organizer who supplied the weapon in retaliation for an assault on his nephew, though he is not alleged to have fired the shots that killed Tupac Shakur. The defense immediately countered that those statements are exaggerations or fiction and that no physical evidence places Davis at the scene. With the first and only person ever charged in the 1996 killing now facing weeks of testimony, forensic evidence, and witness accounts, market odds reflect the skin-in-the-game assessment that the prosecution’s reliance on Davis’s recorded words creates a credible path to conviction while leaving room for reasonable doubt.