Tesla's share-price momentum and SpaceX valuation expectations are the dominant drivers behind the 46% market-implied odds for Elon Musk's net worth exceeding $690 billion by May 31. Recent trading has lifted the Tesla stake component of his holdings, while forward-looking bets on a SpaceX IPO or merger at elevated valuations continue to anchor higher-end probabilities. With resolution just two weeks away, modest further gains in TSLA or confirmatory SpaceX funding news could push consensus further toward the top bin, whereas any sharp pullback in electric-vehicle or robotics sentiment risks shifting weight into the 680–690 billion range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato690b+ 46%
680-690b 19%
670-680b 16%
<610b 8.7%
$20,973 Vol.
$20,973 Vol.
<610b
11%
610-620b
4%
620-630b
8%
630-640b
8%
640-650b
3%
650-660b
8%
660-670b
8%
670-680b
16%
680-690b
19%
690b+
46%
690b+ 46%
680-690b 19%
670-680b 16%
<610b 8.7%
$20,973 Vol.
$20,973 Vol.
<610b
11%
610-620b
4%
620-630b
8%
630-640b
8%
640-650b
3%
650-660b
8%
660-670b
8%
670-680b
16%
680-690b
19%
690b+
46%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for May 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for May 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla's share-price momentum and SpaceX valuation expectations are the dominant drivers behind the 46% market-implied odds for Elon Musk's net worth exceeding $690 billion by May 31. Recent trading has lifted the Tesla stake component of his holdings, while forward-looking bets on a SpaceX IPO or merger at elevated valuations continue to anchor higher-end probabilities. With resolution just two weeks away, modest further gains in TSLA or confirmatory SpaceX funding news could push consensus further toward the top bin, whereas any sharp pullback in electric-vehicle or robotics sentiment risks shifting weight into the 680–690 billion range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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