Finland’s commanding rehearsal buzz and standout live delivery of the fiery “Liekinheitin” in Vienna last week have locked in 73% implied probability as the clear semi-final frontrunner, reflecting overwhelming trader consensus on its blend of violin pyrotechnics and emotional pop appeal. Israel’s polished staging and Greece’s strong diaspora support sit at 14% and 7.5%, respectively, trailing behind Finland’s pre-event momentum and critical consensus. With the first semi-final now complete, the market hinges on televote and jury tallies that typically favor entries with viral rehearsal clips and broad crossover appeal; any late shifts in reported audience reaction could still influence final settlement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Finland 74%
Israel 14%
Greece 8%
Croatia 4.8%
$225,869 Vol.
$225,869 Vol.
12 mag 2026
Finland
74%
Israel
14%
Greece
8%
Croatia
5%
Moldova
2%
Lithuania
2%
Poland
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Belgium
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Finland 74%
Israel 14%
Greece 8%
Croatia 4.8%
$225,869 Vol.
$225,869 Vol.
12 mag 2026
Finland
$33,968 Vol.
74%
Israel
$15,541 Vol.
14%
Greece
$23,706 Vol.
8%
Croatia
$23,238 Vol.
5%
Moldova
$27,160 Vol.
2%
Lithuania
$13,879 Vol.
2%
Poland
$15,427 Vol.
<1%
Sweden
$14,507 Vol.
<1%
Belgium
$7,799 Vol.
<1%
Serbia
$11,005 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland’s commanding rehearsal buzz and standout live delivery of the fiery “Liekinheitin” in Vienna last week have locked in 73% implied probability as the clear semi-final frontrunner, reflecting overwhelming trader consensus on its blend of violin pyrotechnics and emotional pop appeal. Israel’s polished staging and Greece’s strong diaspora support sit at 14% and 7.5%, respectively, trailing behind Finland’s pre-event momentum and critical consensus. With the first semi-final now complete, the market hinges on televote and jury tallies that typically favor entries with viral rehearsal clips and broad crossover appeal; any late shifts in reported audience reaction could still influence final settlement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Mercato aperto: May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$225,869Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland’s commanding rehearsal buzz and standout live delivery of the fiery “Liekinheitin” in Vienna last week have locked in 73% implied probability as the clear semi-final frontrunner, reflecting overwhelming trader consensus on its blend of violin pyrotechnics and emotional pop appeal. Israel’s polished staging and Greece’s strong diaspora support sit at 14% and 7.5%, respectively, trailing behind Finland’s pre-event momentum and critical consensus. With the first semi-final now complete, the market hinges on televote and jury tallies that typically favor entries with viral rehearsal clips and broad crossover appeal; any late shifts in reported audience reaction could still influence final settlement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$225,869Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Finland’s commanding rehearsal buzz and standout live delivery of the fiery “Liekinheitin” in Vienna last week have locked in 73% implied probability as the clear semi-final frontrunner, reflecting overwhelming trader consensus on its blend of violin pyrotechnics and emotional pop appeal. Israel’s polished staging and Greece’s strong diaspora support sit at 14% and 7.5%, respectively, trailing behind Finland’s pre-event momentum and critical consensus. With the first semi-final now complete, the market hinges on televote and jury tallies that typically favor entries with viral rehearsal clips and broad crossover appeal; any late shifts in reported audience reaction could still influence final settlement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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