Recent polling shows incumbent Republican María Elvira Salazar and Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez essentially tied in Florida’s 27th District, with internal surveys from late August and early September placing both candidates near 45-47% among likely voters. The Miami-Dade seat, which Salazar carried by more than 20 points in 2024, has grown more competitive amid shifting local sentiment and lower Trump favorability in the district. Rodriguez’s primary victory and campaign resources have narrowed historical Republican margins, while Salazar retains a fundraising edge. Trader pricing on narrow victory ranges reflects this balance, with small shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or national generic ballot trends likely to determine the final margin ahead of the November 3 election.