Florida's special U.S. Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed in 2025 to complete Marco Rubio's term, against Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon. Recent polling averages show Moody leading by roughly 6-7 points among likely voters, though multiple surveys from September and early October placed the candidates within the margin of error or separated by just 2 points. Nixon's performance among independents and consolidated Democratic support has narrowed the gap despite Republicans' substantial voter registration edge and Moody's stronger name recognition and fundraising. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout among key demographics or additional polling could still influence the final margin in either direction.