Elon Musk's late-July announcements on X set the primary catalyst for current odds, publicly targeting Grok 4.6 for release around August 7, 2026, as a 1.5-trillion-parameter successor to the July 16 Grok 4.5 launch. The model emphasizes gains through refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale, aiming to boost coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning while maintaining token efficiency. This positions it competitively against models like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. A larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later. With the date now upon us, trader sentiment reflects high confidence in xAI hitting the stated window, tempered by typical last-mile deployment variables in frontier model rollouts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGrok 4.6 rilasciato da...?
Grok 4.6 rilasciato da...?
NUOVO
$37,277 Vol.
7 ago 2026
7 agosto
12%
14 agosto
88%
$37,277 Vol.
7 agosto
$21,589 Vol.
12%
14 agosto
$15,688 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's late-July announcements on X set the primary catalyst for current odds, publicly targeting Grok 4.6 for release around August 7, 2026, as a 1.5-trillion-parameter successor to the July 16 Grok 4.5 launch. The model emphasizes gains through refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale, aiming to boost coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning while maintaining token efficiency. This positions it competitively against models like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. A larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later. With the date now upon us, trader sentiment reflects high confidence in xAI hitting the stated window, tempered by typical last-mile deployment variables in frontier model rollouts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$37,277Data di fine
14 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's late-July announcements on X set the primary catalyst for current odds, publicly targeting Grok 4.6 for release around August 7, 2026, as a 1.5-trillion-parameter successor to the July 16 Grok 4.5 launch. The model emphasizes gains through refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale, aiming to boost coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning while maintaining token efficiency. This positions it competitively against models like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. A larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later. With the date now upon us, trader sentiment reflects high confidence in xAI hitting the stated window, tempered by typical last-mile deployment variables in frontier model rollouts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$37,277Data di fine
14 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk's late-July announcements on X set the primary catalyst for current odds, publicly targeting Grok 4.6 for release around August 7, 2026, as a 1.5-trillion-parameter successor to the July 16 Grok 4.5 launch. The model emphasizes gains through refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale, aiming to boost coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning while maintaining token efficiency. This positions it competitively against models like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. A larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later. With the date now upon us, trader sentiment reflects high confidence in xAI hitting the stated window, tempered by typical last-mile deployment variables in frontier model rollouts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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