Google’s 72% implied probability for securing the #3 lab ranking on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) at month-end stems from sustained strength in its Gemini models under adjusted evaluations that normalize for response style and length. This positioning reflects competitive benchmark performance in reasoning and coding tasks amid rapid iteration by multiple labs. A broad cluster of companies at 50% highlights tight mid-tier competition where small leaderboard shifts could alter outcomes, while lower odds for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal limited recent gains in the controlled metrics. With resolution just two weeks away, any new model releases or leaderboard updates could quickly shift trader sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato#3 AI Lab fine settembre? (Controllo stile attivato)
#3 AI Lab fine settembre? (Controllo stile attivato)
Google 72%
Meta 19%
Moonshot 2.6%
OpenAI 2.6%
$110,115 Vol.
$110,115 Vol.
30 set 2026
72%
Meta
19%
Moonshot
3%
OpenAI
3%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 72%
Meta 19%
Moonshot 2.6%
OpenAI 2.6%
$110,115 Vol.
$110,115 Vol.
30 set 2026
$19,853 Vol.
72%
Meta
$27,808 Vol.
19%
Moonshot
$3,604 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$4,802 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$9,756 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,418 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,925 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,975 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$21,137 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,312 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$2,672 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,856 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,514 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,992 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$799 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,570 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$480 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$700 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s 72% implied probability for securing the #3 lab ranking on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) at month-end stems from sustained strength in its Gemini models under adjusted evaluations that normalize for response style and length. This positioning reflects competitive benchmark performance in reasoning and coding tasks amid rapid iteration by multiple labs. A broad cluster of companies at 50% highlights tight mid-tier competition where small leaderboard shifts could alter outcomes, while lower odds for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal limited recent gains in the controlled metrics. With resolution just two weeks away, any new model releases or leaderboard updates could quickly shift trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$110,115Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s 72% implied probability for securing the #3 lab ranking on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) at month-end stems from sustained strength in its Gemini models under adjusted evaluations that normalize for response style and length. This positioning reflects competitive benchmark performance in reasoning and coding tasks amid rapid iteration by multiple labs. A broad cluster of companies at 50% highlights tight mid-tier competition where small leaderboard shifts could alter outcomes, while lower odds for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal limited recent gains in the controlled metrics. With resolution just two weeks away, any new model releases or leaderboard updates could quickly shift trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$110,115Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Google’s 72% implied probability for securing the #3 lab ranking on arena.ai’s Text Arena leaderboard (style control on) at month-end stems from sustained strength in its Gemini models under adjusted evaluations that normalize for response style and length. This positioning reflects competitive benchmark performance in reasoning and coding tasks amid rapid iteration by multiple labs. A broad cluster of companies at 50% highlights tight mid-tier competition where small leaderboard shifts could alter outcomes, while lower odds for OpenAI, Meta, and others signal limited recent gains in the controlled metrics. With resolution just two weeks away, any new model releases or leaderboard updates could quickly shift trader sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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