Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.8 Flash release on September 2, followed by Gemini 3.8 Live and Extended Thinking variants on September 15 plus a specialized Cyber edition, has reinforced trader consensus around its 84% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end-September. These updates delivered strong results on coding benchmarks, long-context handling, and real-time voice capabilities while leveraging Alphabet’s TPU scale and integrations across Search, Cloud, and robotics. Competitive releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 have not displaced Google’s positioning on aggregate leaderboards like arena.ai, where prior August resolution already favored DeepMind. With resolution tied directly to September 30 Text Arena lab rankings, Google’s infrastructure edge and release cadence continue to anchor market-implied odds ahead of challengers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSecond-best AI Lab end of September?
Second-best AI Lab end of September?
Google 84%
Meta 6.7%
OpenAI 4.4%
Alibaba 2.5%
$104,414 Vol.
$104,414 Vol.
30 set 2026
84%
Meta
7%
OpenAI
4%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
2%
Anthropic
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 84%
Meta 6.7%
OpenAI 4.4%
Alibaba 2.5%
$104,414 Vol.
$104,414 Vol.
30 set 2026
$32,016 Vol.
84%
Meta
$13,309 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$8,244 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$14,461 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$3,901 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$5,401 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$3,856 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$3,777 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,888 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$2,229 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$2,539 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,494 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$477 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.8 Flash release on September 2, followed by Gemini 3.8 Live and Extended Thinking variants on September 15 plus a specialized Cyber edition, has reinforced trader consensus around its 84% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end-September. These updates delivered strong results on coding benchmarks, long-context handling, and real-time voice capabilities while leveraging Alphabet’s TPU scale and integrations across Search, Cloud, and robotics. Competitive releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 have not displaced Google’s positioning on aggregate leaderboards like arena.ai, where prior August resolution already favored DeepMind. With resolution tied directly to September 30 Text Arena lab rankings, Google’s infrastructure edge and release cadence continue to anchor market-implied odds ahead of challengers.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$104,414Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.8 Flash release on September 2, followed by Gemini 3.8 Live and Extended Thinking variants on September 15 plus a specialized Cyber edition, has reinforced trader consensus around its 84% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end-September. These updates delivered strong results on coding benchmarks, long-context handling, and real-time voice capabilities while leveraging Alphabet’s TPU scale and integrations across Search, Cloud, and robotics. Competitive releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 have not displaced Google’s positioning on aggregate leaderboards like arena.ai, where prior August resolution already favored DeepMind. With resolution tied directly to September 30 Text Arena lab rankings, Google’s infrastructure edge and release cadence continue to anchor market-implied odds ahead of challengers.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$104,414Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.8 Flash release on September 2, followed by Gemini 3.8 Live and Extended Thinking variants on September 15 plus a specialized Cyber edition, has reinforced trader consensus around its 84% implied probability for second-best AI lab by end-September. These updates delivered strong results on coding benchmarks, long-context handling, and real-time voice capabilities while leveraging Alphabet’s TPU scale and integrations across Search, Cloud, and robotics. Competitive releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 have not displaced Google’s positioning on aggregate leaderboards like arena.ai, where prior August resolution already favored DeepMind. With resolution tied directly to September 30 Text Arena lab rankings, Google’s infrastructure edge and release cadence continue to anchor market-implied odds ahead of challengers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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