Meta's strong positioning at 70.5% implied probability stems from its recent Muse Spark and Llama 4 releases, including models with advanced controllability features that align with the market's "Style Control On" resolution criteria, combined with its dominant open-weights ecosystem driving developer adoption and third-party benchmarks. This contrasts with Google DeepMind's lower 15% odds despite Gemini capabilities, as traders weigh Meta's edge in accessible, customizable large language models over closed frontier systems. OpenAI and Anthropic sit at just 5.5% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting their focus on topping overall leaderboards rather than claiming second place. Key near-term catalysts include any late-September model updates or benchmark shifts that could confirm or disrupt Meta's lead before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Meta 71%
Google 15%
Anthropic 8.3%
OpenAI 6%
$80,202 Vol.
$80,202 Vol.
30 set 2026
Meta
71%
15%
Anthropic
8%
OpenAI
6%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 71%
Google 15%
Anthropic 8.3%
OpenAI 6%
$80,202 Vol.
$80,202 Vol.
30 set 2026
Meta
$25,054 Vol.
71%
$10,930 Vol.
15%
Anthropic
$4,203 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$15,942 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$2,097 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$1,620 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,312 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,593 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,573 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,111 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,450 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,031 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,361 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,232 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$645 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,538 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$460 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$820 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$665 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$733 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$831 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's strong positioning at 70.5% implied probability stems from its recent Muse Spark and Llama 4 releases, including models with advanced controllability features that align with the market's "Style Control On" resolution criteria, combined with its dominant open-weights ecosystem driving developer adoption and third-party benchmarks. This contrasts with Google DeepMind's lower 15% odds despite Gemini capabilities, as traders weigh Meta's edge in accessible, customizable large language models over closed frontier systems. OpenAI and Anthropic sit at just 5.5% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting their focus on topping overall leaderboards rather than claiming second place. Key near-term catalysts include any late-September model updates or benchmark shifts that could confirm or disrupt Meta's lead before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$80,202Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's strong positioning at 70.5% implied probability stems from its recent Muse Spark and Llama 4 releases, including models with advanced controllability features that align with the market's "Style Control On" resolution criteria, combined with its dominant open-weights ecosystem driving developer adoption and third-party benchmarks. This contrasts with Google DeepMind's lower 15% odds despite Gemini capabilities, as traders weigh Meta's edge in accessible, customizable large language models over closed frontier systems. OpenAI and Anthropic sit at just 5.5% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting their focus on topping overall leaderboards rather than claiming second place. Key near-term catalysts include any late-September model updates or benchmark shifts that could confirm or disrupt Meta's lead before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$80,202Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Meta's strong positioning at 70.5% implied probability stems from its recent Muse Spark and Llama 4 releases, including models with advanced controllability features that align with the market's "Style Control On" resolution criteria, combined with its dominant open-weights ecosystem driving developer adoption and third-party benchmarks. This contrasts with Google DeepMind's lower 15% odds despite Gemini capabilities, as traders weigh Meta's edge in accessible, customizable large language models over closed frontier systems. OpenAI and Anthropic sit at just 5.5% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting their focus on topping overall leaderboards rather than claiming second place. Key near-term catalysts include any late-September model updates or benchmark shifts that could confirm or disrupt Meta's lead before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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