xAI’s repeated delays on Grok 5, after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, have shifted trader sentiment toward a late-2026 release, with December 31 now holding roughly 63-68% implied probability on related markets. The model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster following its January 2026 confirmation, while the company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—rapid 1.5T-parameter iterations focused on speed, cost, and agentic coding that compete directly with models like Opus 4.7. Musk’s August SpaceX earnings comments reiterated an end-of-2026 goal, potentially incorporating SpaceX data and 6T–10T MoE variants, but the pattern of slipped windows and emphasis on interim releases continues to anchor expectations around Q4 rather than earlier.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGrok 5 rilasciato da...?
Grok 5 rilasciato da...?
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
31 agosto
<1%
31 ottobre
18%
30 novembre
49%
31 dicembre
68%
$8,565 Vol.
31 agosto
$3,541 Vol.
<1%
31 ottobre
$1,769 Vol.
18%
30 novembre
$21 Vol.
49%
31 dicembre
$1,711 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s repeated delays on Grok 5, after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, have shifted trader sentiment toward a late-2026 release, with December 31 now holding roughly 63-68% implied probability on related markets. The model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster following its January 2026 confirmation, while the company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—rapid 1.5T-parameter iterations focused on speed, cost, and agentic coding that compete directly with models like Opus 4.7. Musk’s August SpaceX earnings comments reiterated an end-of-2026 goal, potentially incorporating SpaceX data and 6T–10T MoE variants, but the pattern of slipped windows and emphasis on interim releases continues to anchor expectations around Q4 rather than earlier.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$8,565Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s repeated delays on Grok 5, after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, have shifted trader sentiment toward a late-2026 release, with December 31 now holding roughly 63-68% implied probability on related markets. The model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster following its January 2026 confirmation, while the company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—rapid 1.5T-parameter iterations focused on speed, cost, and agentic coding that compete directly with models like Opus 4.7. Musk’s August SpaceX earnings comments reiterated an end-of-2026 goal, potentially incorporating SpaceX data and 6T–10T MoE variants, but the pattern of slipped windows and emphasis on interim releases continues to anchor expectations around Q4 rather than earlier.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,565Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...xAI’s repeated delays on Grok 5, after missing Q1 and Q2 2026 targets, have shifted trader sentiment toward a late-2026 release, with December 31 now holding roughly 63-68% implied probability on related markets. The model remains in training on the expanded Colossus 2 cluster following its January 2026 confirmation, while the company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August—rapid 1.5T-parameter iterations focused on speed, cost, and agentic coding that compete directly with models like Opus 4.7. Musk’s August SpaceX earnings comments reiterated an end-of-2026 goal, potentially incorporating SpaceX data and 6T–10T MoE variants, but the pattern of slipped windows and emphasis on interim releases continues to anchor expectations around Q4 rather than earlier.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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