**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
$79,467 Vol.
$79,467 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$79,467 Vol.
$79,467 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$79,467Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$79,467Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The absence of Phase 3 clinical trials for any hantavirus vaccine candidate drives the strong 88.5% market-implied probability for "No" by year-end, reflecting trader consensus on regulatory timelines amid CDC and WHO confirmation of no licensed vaccines worldwide.** A recent Andes virus outbreak on cruise ship MV Hondius—eight cases (six confirmed), three deaths as of May 8—has spurred preclinical efforts like Moderna's mRNA platform and University of Bath's glycoprotein vaccine nearing Phase 1, but hantavirus pulmonary syndrome's rarity (under 1,000 global cases yearly) hampers large efficacy studies. Historical Phase 1/2a trials for Andes and Hantaan DNA vaccines stalled years ago without advancement. Upcoming forecast updates from WHO and potential Phase 1 initiations offer no path to approval in the next seven months absent Warp Speed-scale intervention.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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