Recent northwesterly flow has advected cooler maritime air over southern Finland, while persistent cloud cover has limited daytime insolation and kept surface heating modest. Ensemble guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF places the May 22 maximum near 14–16 °C at Helsinki-Vantaa, with the tight clustering around 15 °C and 16 °C reflecting small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and the exact timing of any partial clearing. Historical May climatology shows a 14–15 °C modal high, so current model consensus aligns with near-normal conditions rather than anomalous warmth or chill. Updated short-range runs and afternoon observations will be the next key inputs for traders assessing whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of the favored range.