Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn faces Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott in the November 3, 2026, general election for Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, which encompasses Des Moines and surrounding southwestern areas. Traders on Polymarket assign the Democratic nominee a 76.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the seat’s narrow 2024 margin, its status as a targeted pickup opportunity for national Democrats, and the release of early general-election ads by Garriott’s campaign in early August. Both candidates secured uncontested party nominations in the June 2 primaries. Available polling shows a close contest, with one March survey giving Nunn a modest lead, while Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican or Toss-up. Midterm dynamics, turnout patterns in suburban and urban precincts, and any late-cycle shifts in Iowa voter sentiment remain central variables that could influence the final outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
73%
Republican Party
28%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$3,166 Vol.
73%
Republican Party
$3,989 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn faces Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott in the November 3, 2026, general election for Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, which encompasses Des Moines and surrounding southwestern areas. Traders on Polymarket assign the Democratic nominee a 76.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the seat’s narrow 2024 margin, its status as a targeted pickup opportunity for national Democrats, and the release of early general-election ads by Garriott’s campaign in early August. Both candidates secured uncontested party nominations in the June 2 primaries. Available polling shows a close contest, with one March survey giving Nunn a modest lead, while Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican or Toss-up. Midterm dynamics, turnout patterns in suburban and urban precincts, and any late-cycle shifts in Iowa voter sentiment remain central variables that could influence the final outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Volume
$7,156Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn faces Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott in the November 3, 2026, general election for Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, which encompasses Des Moines and surrounding southwestern areas. Traders on Polymarket assign the Democratic nominee a 76.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the seat’s narrow 2024 margin, its status as a targeted pickup opportunity for national Democrats, and the release of early general-election ads by Garriott’s campaign in early August. Both candidates secured uncontested party nominations in the June 2 primaries. Available polling shows a close contest, with one March survey giving Nunn a modest lead, while Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican or Toss-up. Midterm dynamics, turnout patterns in suburban and urban precincts, and any late-cycle shifts in Iowa voter sentiment remain central variables that could influence the final outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,156Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn faces Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott in the November 3, 2026, general election for Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, which encompasses Des Moines and surrounding southwestern areas. Traders on Polymarket assign the Democratic nominee a 76.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the seat’s narrow 2024 margin, its status as a targeted pickup opportunity for national Democrats, and the release of early general-election ads by Garriott’s campaign in early August. Both candidates secured uncontested party nominations in the June 2 primaries. Available polling shows a close contest, with one March survey giving Nunn a modest lead, while Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican or Toss-up. Midterm dynamics, turnout patterns in suburban and urban precincts, and any late-cycle shifts in Iowa voter sentiment remain central variables that could influence the final outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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