US intelligence assessments in early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program timeline to develop a weapon remains around one year despite Israeli strikes damaging key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant, with IAEA updates confirming aboveground destruction but persistent verification gaps. No evidence of weaponization efforts has emerged amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and stalled negotiations where Tehran's responses fall short of demands on highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Netanyahu recently emphasized remaining nuclear materials, yet regime instability and international sanctions reinforce trader consensus on a 91% implied probability against a test before 2027, barring major escalation in military actions or diplomatic breakdowns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$191,714 Vol.
$191,714 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$191,714 Vol.
$191,714 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments in early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program timeline to develop a weapon remains around one year despite Israeli strikes damaging key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant, with IAEA updates confirming aboveground destruction but persistent verification gaps. No evidence of weaponization efforts has emerged amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and stalled negotiations where Tehran's responses fall short of demands on highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Netanyahu recently emphasized remaining nuclear materials, yet regime instability and international sanctions reinforce trader consensus on a 91% implied probability against a test before 2027, barring major escalation in military actions or diplomatic breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$191,714Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments in early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program timeline to develop a weapon remains around one year despite Israeli strikes damaging key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant, with IAEA updates confirming aboveground destruction but persistent verification gaps. No evidence of weaponization efforts has emerged amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and stalled negotiations where Tehran's responses fall short of demands on highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Netanyahu recently emphasized remaining nuclear materials, yet regime instability and international sanctions reinforce trader consensus on a 91% implied probability against a test before 2027, barring major escalation in military actions or diplomatic breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$191,714Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments in early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program timeline to develop a weapon remains around one year despite Israeli strikes damaging key sites like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant, with IAEA updates confirming aboveground destruction but persistent verification gaps. No evidence of weaponization efforts has emerged amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and stalled negotiations where Tehran's responses fall short of demands on highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Netanyahu recently emphasized remaining nuclear materials, yet regime instability and international sanctions reinforce trader consensus on a 91% implied probability against a test before 2027, barring major escalation in military actions or diplomatic breakdowns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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