US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran requires 9-12 months for nuclear weaponization—unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Natanz—pushing trader consensus to 91% against a bomb before 2027, as this exceeds the market's timeline. IAEA reports note Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of an active weapons program, with prior strikes causing setbacks yet leaving capabilities intact amid sanctions and military pressure. Stalled US-Iran talks, including rejected proposals over nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, underscore diplomatic impasse during a fragile ceasefire, reinforcing significant technical and political barriers to rapid escalation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$602,047 Vol.
$602,047 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$602,047 Vol.
$602,047 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran requires 9-12 months for nuclear weaponization—unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Natanz—pushing trader consensus to 91% against a bomb before 2027, as this exceeds the market's timeline. IAEA reports note Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of an active weapons program, with prior strikes causing setbacks yet leaving capabilities intact amid sanctions and military pressure. Stalled US-Iran talks, including rejected proposals over nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, underscore diplomatic impasse during a fragile ceasefire, reinforcing significant technical and political barriers to rapid escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$602,047Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran requires 9-12 months for nuclear weaponization—unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Natanz—pushing trader consensus to 91% against a bomb before 2027, as this exceeds the market's timeline. IAEA reports note Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of an active weapons program, with prior strikes causing setbacks yet leaving capabilities intact amid sanctions and military pressure. Stalled US-Iran talks, including rejected proposals over nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, underscore diplomatic impasse during a fragile ceasefire, reinforcing significant technical and political barriers to rapid escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$602,047Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran requires 9-12 months for nuclear weaponization—unchanged despite US and Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Natanz—pushing trader consensus to 91% against a bomb before 2027, as this exceeds the market's timeline. IAEA reports note Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of an active weapons program, with prior strikes causing setbacks yet leaving capabilities intact amid sanctions and military pressure. Stalled US-Iran talks, including rejected proposals over nuclear curbs and Strait of Hormuz access, underscore diplomatic impasse during a fragile ceasefire, reinforcing significant technical and political barriers to rapid escalation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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