Traders assign an 82.7% implied probability to “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction by December 31, 2026, reflecting the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the presumption of innocence. Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count of sexual assault stemming from an August 2024 allegation; he faces his next court date in early 2026 amid typical provincial backlogs. Prior 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, and his counsel has signaled a full defense. Historical patterns show sexual assault cases in Ontario often extend well beyond 18 months from charge to resolution, while the market rules treat dismissals, withdrawals, or non-guilt pleas as resolving to “No.” Key catalysts ahead include disclosure timelines and any trial scheduling updates through late 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJustin Aguiar condannato per violenza sessuale prima del 2027?
Justin Aguiar condannato per violenza sessuale prima del 2027?
Sì
31% probabilità
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
31% probabilità
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 82.7% implied probability to “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction by December 31, 2026, reflecting the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the presumption of innocence. Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count of sexual assault stemming from an August 2024 allegation; he faces his next court date in early 2026 amid typical provincial backlogs. Prior 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, and his counsel has signaled a full defense. Historical patterns show sexual assault cases in Ontario often extend well beyond 18 months from charge to resolution, while the market rules treat dismissals, withdrawals, or non-guilt pleas as resolving to “No.” Key catalysts ahead include disclosure timelines and any trial scheduling updates through late 2026.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$52,562Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 82.7% implied probability to “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction by December 31, 2026, reflecting the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the presumption of innocence. Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count of sexual assault stemming from an August 2024 allegation; he faces his next court date in early 2026 amid typical provincial backlogs. Prior 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, and his counsel has signaled a full defense. Historical patterns show sexual assault cases in Ontario often extend well beyond 18 months from charge to resolution, while the market rules treat dismissals, withdrawals, or non-guilt pleas as resolving to “No.” Key catalysts ahead include disclosure timelines and any trial scheduling updates through late 2026.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,562Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 82.7% implied probability to “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction by December 31, 2026, reflecting the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the presumption of innocence. Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count of sexual assault stemming from an August 2024 allegation; he faces his next court date in early 2026 amid typical provincial backlogs. Prior 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, and his counsel has signaled a full defense. Historical patterns show sexual assault cases in Ontario often extend well beyond 18 months from charge to resolution, while the market rules treat dismissals, withdrawals, or non-guilt pleas as resolving to “No.” Key catalysts ahead include disclosure timelines and any trial scheduling updates through late 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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