Republican John Moolenaar holds a commanding lead in the MI-02 House race, reflecting the district's consistent R+15 partisan lean and his strong incumbency advantage after winning 65.1% in 2024. The western Michigan district, encompassing rural and suburban counties around the Grand Rapids area, has delivered reliable Republican margins in recent cycles. Moolenaar secured his party's nomination without notable primary opposition following the August 4 contest, while Democratic nominee Ben Ambrose, a former Marine, faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout environment. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for safe seats. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national wave that alters turnout patterns before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera MI-02
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera MI-02
$53,824 Vol.
$53,824 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
97%
Partito Democratico
1%
$53,824 Vol.
$53,824 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$22,737 Vol.
97%
Partito Democratico
$31,087 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican John Moolenaar holds a commanding lead in the MI-02 House race, reflecting the district's consistent R+15 partisan lean and his strong incumbency advantage after winning 65.1% in 2024. The western Michigan district, encompassing rural and suburban counties around the Grand Rapids area, has delivered reliable Republican margins in recent cycles. Moolenaar secured his party's nomination without notable primary opposition following the August 4 contest, while Democratic nominee Ben Ambrose, a former Marine, faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout environment. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for safe seats. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national wave that alters turnout patterns before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$53,824Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican John Moolenaar holds a commanding lead in the MI-02 House race, reflecting the district's consistent R+15 partisan lean and his strong incumbency advantage after winning 65.1% in 2024. The western Michigan district, encompassing rural and suburban counties around the Grand Rapids area, has delivered reliable Republican margins in recent cycles. Moolenaar secured his party's nomination without notable primary opposition following the August 4 contest, while Democratic nominee Ben Ambrose, a former Marine, faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout environment. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for safe seats. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national wave that alters turnout patterns before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$53,824Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican John Moolenaar holds a commanding lead in the MI-02 House race, reflecting the district's consistent R+15 partisan lean and his strong incumbency advantage after winning 65.1% in 2024. The western Michigan district, encompassing rural and suburban counties around the Grand Rapids area, has delivered reliable Republican margins in recent cycles. Moolenaar secured his party's nomination without notable primary opposition following the August 4 contest, while Democratic nominee Ben Ambrose, a former Marine, faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout environment. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for safe seats. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national wave that alters turnout patterns before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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