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Tech·AI

Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?

icon for Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?
Tech·AI

Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?

NUOVO
31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$20 Vol.

Polymarket

1440+

$20 Vol.

64%

1450+

$0 Vol.

47%

1460+

$0 Vol.

45%

1470+

$0 Vol.

45%

1480+

$0 Vol.

47%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok series, including frequent updates like Grok 4.1's November 2025 Text Arena debut at #1 on LMArena and subsequent additions such as Grok 4.3 and Grok 4.20 variants, drives trader focus on the timing of the next model's leaderboard appearance. Multiple models are training simultaneously on the Colossus cluster, with Grok 4.4 expected soon after recent 4.x releases and Grok 5 targeted later at much larger scale. Competitive pressure from Claude, Gemini, and OpenAI models on text benchmarks, combined with xAI's pattern of stealth or quick arena entries after internal testing, shapes expectations around release cadences. Key catalysts include official xAI announcements, API integrations, and any verified leaderboard uploads that could accelerate or delay the debut.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$20
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok series, including frequent updates like Grok 4.1's November 2025 Text Arena debut at #1 on LMArena and subsequent additions such as Grok 4.3 and Grok 4.20 variants, drives trader focus on the timing of the next model's leaderboard appearance. Multiple models are training simultaneously on the Colossus cluster, with Grok 4.4 expected soon after recent 4.x releases and Grok 5 targeted later at much larger scale. Competitive pressure from Claude, Gemini, and OpenAI models on text benchmarks, combined with xAI's pattern of stealth or quick arena entries after internal testing, shapes expectations around release cadences. Key catalysts include official xAI announcements, API integrations, and any verified leaderboard uploads that could accelerate or delay the debut.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$20
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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Domande frequenti

"Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 5 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "1440+" a 64%, seguito da "1450+" a 47%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 64¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 64% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jul 7, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?", esplora i 5 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?" è "1440+" a 64%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 64% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "1450+" a 47%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.