The September 13 election delivered a narrow 176-173 seat majority for the centre-left bloc, prompting incumbent Ulf Kristersson to resign and triggering standard Riksdag formation talks led by the Speaker. Magdalena Andersson initially received the exploratory mandate but returned it after the Left Party withdrew support amid disputes over cabinet roles and the speakership, leaving the bloc’s internal divisions unresolved. Traders assign Andersson an 79.5% implied probability because her Social Democrats remain the largest party and the left holds the seat edge, though Kristersson at 17% retains a path if the Speaker grants him the next attempt and cross-bloc cooperation fails. Ongoing vote challenges and preliminary fraud inquiries in a few districts add procedural uncertainty, but no development has yet overturned the bloc result or altered the constitutional timeline for repeated candidate votes.