The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton remains tightly contested ahead of the May 26 vote, with recent University of Houston polling showing Paxton ahead by just three points among likely voters and low single-digit undecideds. A calcified electorate from the March primary, combined with both campaigns' heavy reliance on negative advertising and personal attacks, has limited movement in support despite Cornyn's significant spending advantage. Early voting begins May 18, and the absence of major new endorsements or external shocks has kept trader expectations focused on a narrow outcome, with various margin brackets reflecting the closely matched bases in this intraparty contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPaxton 6–9% 23%
Cornyn <3% 20.2%
Paxton 9%+ 16.2%
Paxton 3–6% 14%
$59,266 Vol.
$59,266 Vol.
25 mag 2026
Paxton 9%+
16%
Paxton 6–9%
23%
Paxton 3–6%
14%
Paxton <3%
11%
Cornyn <3%
20%
Cornyn 3–6%
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
7%
Cornyn 9%+
10%
Paxton 6–9% 23%
Cornyn <3% 20.2%
Paxton 9%+ 16.2%
Paxton 3–6% 14%
$59,266 Vol.
$59,266 Vol.
25 mag 2026
Paxton 9%+
$11,910 Vol.
16%
Paxton 6–9%
$6,727 Vol.
23%
Paxton 3–6%
$5,750 Vol.
14%
Paxton <3%
$7,085 Vol.
11%
Cornyn <3%
$5,174 Vol.
20%
Cornyn 3–6%
$5,243 Vol.
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
$5,306 Vol.
7%
Cornyn 9%+
$12,071 Vol.
10%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton remains tightly contested ahead of the May 26 vote, with recent University of Houston polling showing Paxton ahead by just three points among likely voters and low single-digit undecideds. A calcified electorate from the March primary, combined with both campaigns' heavy reliance on negative advertising and personal attacks, has limited movement in support despite Cornyn's significant spending advantage. Early voting begins May 18, and the absence of major new endorsements or external shocks has kept trader expectations focused on a narrow outcome, with various margin brackets reflecting the closely matched bases in this intraparty contest.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$59,266Data di fine
25 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton remains tightly contested ahead of the May 26 vote, with recent University of Houston polling showing Paxton ahead by just three points among likely voters and low single-digit undecideds. A calcified electorate from the March primary, combined with both campaigns' heavy reliance on negative advertising and personal attacks, has limited movement in support despite Cornyn's significant spending advantage. Early voting begins May 18, and the absence of major new endorsements or external shocks has kept trader expectations focused on a narrow outcome, with various margin brackets reflecting the closely matched bases in this intraparty contest.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$59,266Data di fine
25 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton remains tightly contested ahead of the May 26 vote, with recent University of Houston polling showing Paxton ahead by just three points among likely voters and low single-digit undecideds. A calcified electorate from the March primary, combined with both campaigns' heavy reliance on negative advertising and personal attacks, has limited movement in support despite Cornyn's significant spending advantage. Early voting begins May 18, and the absence of major new endorsements or external shocks has kept trader expectations focused on a narrow outcome, with various margin brackets reflecting the closely matched bases in this intraparty contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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