**Traders see a low likelihood of Turkey advancing a new constitution in 2026 due to persistent parliamentary arithmetic shortfalls and the preliminary nature of recent efforts.** The ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, well below the 360 needed to send amendments to a referendum or the 400 required for immediate effect without one. Official statements, including from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June, have expressed optimism about progress in 2026-2027, and an AKP commission has continued internal work on drafting proposals. However, late-August reports of internal AKP drafts focused on modest adjustments—such as shifting some presidential powers to the cabinet and restoring parliamentary oversight roles—remain unadopted and unendorsed at the leadership level. These steps would still require Article 106 or broader amendments. The August passage of the Framework Law advancing the PKK peace process with broad cross-party support (468 votes) has raised speculation about potential Kurdish DEM Party backing for future changes, but it has not translated into constitutional action. Opposition fragmentation following the CHP split has not produced the necessary consensus, and timelines make formal initiation or adoption improbable before year-end. Market pricing reflects these structural barriers over optimistic rhetoric.