**Elevated interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target amid persistent inflation near 4.2% year-over-year continue to pressure smaller banks' net interest margins and unrealized losses on fixed-rate assets, creating a balanced 50% market-implied probability of a failure by July 31.** The Fed's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital levels and stable funding across the sector, with uninsured deposits well below 2023 peaks, supporting resilience after two small failures earlier in 2026 (Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia). Traders weigh these buffers against ongoing commercial real estate and inflation headwinds. Key upcoming catalysts include July CPI and employment data, plus any FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations or reveal localized stress.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 lug 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.**Elevated interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target amid persistent inflation near 4.2% year-over-year continue to pressure smaller banks' net interest margins and unrealized losses on fixed-rate assets, creating a balanced 50% market-implied probability of a failure by July 31.** The Fed's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital levels and stable funding across the sector, with uninsured deposits well below 2023 peaks, supporting resilience after two small failures earlier in 2026 (Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia). Traders weigh these buffers against ongoing commercial real estate and inflation headwinds. Key upcoming catalysts include July CPI and employment data, plus any FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations or reveal localized stress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Jul 1, 2026, 1:40 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 1, 2026, 1:40 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.**Elevated interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target amid persistent inflation near 4.2% year-over-year continue to pressure smaller banks' net interest margins and unrealized losses on fixed-rate assets, creating a balanced 50% market-implied probability of a failure by July 31.** The Fed's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital levels and stable funding across the sector, with uninsured deposits well below 2023 peaks, supporting resilience after two small failures earlier in 2026 (Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia). Traders weigh these buffers against ongoing commercial real estate and inflation headwinds. Key upcoming catalysts include July CPI and employment data, plus any FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations or reveal localized stress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 1, 2026, 1:40 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Elevated interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target amid persistent inflation near 4.2% year-over-year continue to pressure smaller banks' net interest margins and unrealized losses on fixed-rate assets, creating a balanced 50% market-implied probability of a failure by July 31.** The Fed's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital levels and stable funding across the sector, with uninsured deposits well below 2023 peaks, supporting resilience after two small failures earlier in 2026 (Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia). Traders weigh these buffers against ongoing commercial real estate and inflation headwinds. Key upcoming catalysts include July CPI and employment data, plus any FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations or reveal localized stress.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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