Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 32-point margin there in the prior presidential contest. Incumbent Republican Mike Kennedy advanced unopposed through the canceled June 2026 primary, while Democrat Jonny Larsen secured the nomination, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. Redistricting adjustments primarily impacted neighboring districts, leaving UT-04's boundaries with a durable GOP edge that aligns with historical voting patterns and limits Democratic crossover potential. Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and other forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee accounts for these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from current district fundamentals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$39,997 Vol.
$39,997 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$39,997 Vol.
$39,997 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$15,672 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$24,325 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 32-point margin there in the prior presidential contest. Incumbent Republican Mike Kennedy advanced unopposed through the canceled June 2026 primary, while Democrat Jonny Larsen secured the nomination, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. Redistricting adjustments primarily impacted neighboring districts, leaving UT-04's boundaries with a durable GOP edge that aligns with historical voting patterns and limits Democratic crossover potential. Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and other forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee accounts for these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from current district fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$39,997Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 32-point margin there in the prior presidential contest. Incumbent Republican Mike Kennedy advanced unopposed through the canceled June 2026 primary, while Democrat Jonny Larsen secured the nomination, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. Redistricting adjustments primarily impacted neighboring districts, leaving UT-04's boundaries with a durable GOP edge that aligns with historical voting patterns and limits Democratic crossover potential. Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and other forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee accounts for these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from current district fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,997Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+17 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump's 32-point margin there in the prior presidential contest. Incumbent Republican Mike Kennedy advanced unopposed through the canceled June 2026 primary, while Democrat Jonny Larsen secured the nomination, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. Redistricting adjustments primarily impacted neighboring districts, leaving UT-04's boundaries with a durable GOP edge that aligns with historical voting patterns and limits Democratic crossover potential. Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and other forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee accounts for these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national midterm wave could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from current district fundamentals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti