Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in Anthropic, reflected in its 90.5% implied probability of offering the best AI model by the end of May. This market consensus stems from the company's recent large language model updates that delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations, positioning it ahead of rivals in direct capability comparisons. Google holds a distant 7.5% share amid ongoing Gemini refinements, while OpenAI and others sit near 1% or below due to slower recent progress on key metrics. Potential catalysts include any surprise capability demonstrations or efficiency improvements before month-end, though a meaningful shift would require competitors to post verifiable benchmark wins or major architectural advances that exceed current trader expectations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di maggio?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di maggio?
Anthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,982,175 Vol.
$8,982,175 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Anthropic
91%
8%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,982,175 Vol.
$8,982,175 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Anthropic
$674,430 Vol.
91%
$621,099 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$765,813 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$556,054 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$527,086 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$584,161 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$667,385 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$518,378 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$558,159 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$478,923 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$470,637 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$406,756 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,423,820 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$311,909 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$418,351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in Anthropic, reflected in its 90.5% implied probability of offering the best AI model by the end of May. This market consensus stems from the company's recent large language model updates that delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations, positioning it ahead of rivals in direct capability comparisons. Google holds a distant 7.5% share amid ongoing Gemini refinements, while OpenAI and others sit near 1% or below due to slower recent progress on key metrics. Potential catalysts include any surprise capability demonstrations or efficiency improvements before month-end, though a meaningful shift would require competitors to post verifiable benchmark wins or major architectural advances that exceed current trader expectations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volume
$8,982,175Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in Anthropic, reflected in its 90.5% implied probability of offering the best AI model by the end of May. This market consensus stems from the company's recent large language model updates that delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations, positioning it ahead of rivals in direct capability comparisons. Google holds a distant 7.5% share amid ongoing Gemini refinements, while OpenAI and others sit near 1% or below due to slower recent progress on key metrics. Potential catalysts include any surprise capability demonstrations or efficiency improvements before month-end, though a meaningful shift would require competitors to post verifiable benchmark wins or major architectural advances that exceed current trader expectations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$8,982,175Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have placed overwhelming confidence in Anthropic, reflected in its 90.5% implied probability of offering the best AI model by the end of May. This market consensus stems from the company's recent large language model updates that delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations, positioning it ahead of rivals in direct capability comparisons. Google holds a distant 7.5% share amid ongoing Gemini refinements, while OpenAI and others sit near 1% or below due to slower recent progress on key metrics. Potential catalysts include any surprise capability demonstrations or efficiency improvements before month-end, though a meaningful shift would require competitors to post verifiable benchmark wins or major architectural advances that exceed current trader expectations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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