Anthropic holds the overwhelming 89.5% market-implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven by the strong recent performance of its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet variants on key benchmarks such as SWE-Bench for coding and agentic workflows. Traders appear to view these large language models as maintaining a clear edge in instruction-following, long-context handling, and developer tooling integration, even as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro deliver competitive results in reasoning and multimodal tasks. No major new releases from rivals have shifted the leaderboard in the past two weeks, reinforcing the current consensus. With the resolution window closing soon, any final capability demonstrations or benchmark updates in the coming days could still influence final positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di maggio?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di maggio?
Anthropic 90%
Google 11%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,840,213 Vol.
$8,840,213 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Anthropic
90%
11%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 11%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,840,213 Vol.
$8,840,213 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Anthropic
$651,273 Vol.
90%
$603,020 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$747,789 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$552,697 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$521,910 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$523,298 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$666,322 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$518,378 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$557,810 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,923 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$470,637 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$403,756 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,421,640 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$311,909 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$413,851 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds the overwhelming 89.5% market-implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven by the strong recent performance of its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet variants on key benchmarks such as SWE-Bench for coding and agentic workflows. Traders appear to view these large language models as maintaining a clear edge in instruction-following, long-context handling, and developer tooling integration, even as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro deliver competitive results in reasoning and multimodal tasks. No major new releases from rivals have shifted the leaderboard in the past two weeks, reinforcing the current consensus. With the resolution window closing soon, any final capability demonstrations or benchmark updates in the coming days could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volume
$8,840,213Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds the overwhelming 89.5% market-implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven by the strong recent performance of its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet variants on key benchmarks such as SWE-Bench for coding and agentic workflows. Traders appear to view these large language models as maintaining a clear edge in instruction-following, long-context handling, and developer tooling integration, even as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro deliver competitive results in reasoning and multimodal tasks. No major new releases from rivals have shifted the leaderboard in the past two weeks, reinforcing the current consensus. With the resolution window closing soon, any final capability demonstrations or benchmark updates in the coming days could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$8,840,213Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the overwhelming 89.5% market-implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven by the strong recent performance of its Claude Opus 4.7 and Sonnet variants on key benchmarks such as SWE-Bench for coding and agentic workflows. Traders appear to view these large language models as maintaining a clear edge in instruction-following, long-context handling, and developer tooling integration, even as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro deliver competitive results in reasoning and multimodal tasks. No major new releases from rivals have shifted the leaderboard in the past two weeks, reinforcing the current consensus. With the resolution window closing soon, any final capability demonstrations or benchmark updates in the coming days could still influence final positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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