Anthropic’s strong implied probability of 70.5% stems from its Claude series, including recent Fable 5 and Mythos Preview variants, posting top scores on math-specific leaderboards such as Text Arena subcategories, LiveBench Mathematics, and MathArena evaluations through July and early August 2026. These models demonstrate superior performance on GSM8K, MATH, and AIME-style problems compared with GPT-5.6 Sol and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Lower odds for OpenAI (15.5%), Google (8.6%), and DeepSeek (6.8%) reflect their competitive but trailing benchmark results, while Chinese labs like Alibaba and Moonshot sit further back. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent frontier releases and agentic reasoning gains against the possibility of rapid catch-up releases before the October resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di IA Text Arena Math alla fine di ottobre?
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di IA Text Arena Math alla fine di ottobre?
Anthropic 71%
OpenAI 16%
Google 8.8%
Xiaomi 3.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ott 2026
Anthropic
71%
OpenAI
16%
9%
Xiaomi
4%
Alibaba
3%
Meta
2%
StepFun
2%
Moonshot
2%
Tencent
2%
Amazon
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
Z.ai
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
ByteDance
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
7%
Anthropic 71%
OpenAI 16%
Google 8.8%
Xiaomi 3.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ott 2026
Anthropic
$821 Vol.
71%
OpenAI
$230 Vol.
16%
$170 Vol.
9%
Xiaomi
$218 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$93 Vol.
3%
Meta
$103 Vol.
2%
StepFun
$142 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$93 Vol.
2%
Tencent
$181 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$177 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$95 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$124 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$142 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$145 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$162 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$149 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$184 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$124 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$124 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$228 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s strong implied probability of 70.5% stems from its Claude series, including recent Fable 5 and Mythos Preview variants, posting top scores on math-specific leaderboards such as Text Arena subcategories, LiveBench Mathematics, and MathArena evaluations through July and early August 2026. These models demonstrate superior performance on GSM8K, MATH, and AIME-style problems compared with GPT-5.6 Sol and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Lower odds for OpenAI (15.5%), Google (8.6%), and DeepSeek (6.8%) reflect their competitive but trailing benchmark results, while Chinese labs like Alibaba and Moonshot sit further back. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent frontier releases and agentic reasoning gains against the possibility of rapid catch-up releases before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$3,706Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s strong implied probability of 70.5% stems from its Claude series, including recent Fable 5 and Mythos Preview variants, posting top scores on math-specific leaderboards such as Text Arena subcategories, LiveBench Mathematics, and MathArena evaluations through July and early August 2026. These models demonstrate superior performance on GSM8K, MATH, and AIME-style problems compared with GPT-5.6 Sol and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Lower odds for OpenAI (15.5%), Google (8.6%), and DeepSeek (6.8%) reflect their competitive but trailing benchmark results, while Chinese labs like Alibaba and Moonshot sit further back. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent frontier releases and agentic reasoning gains against the possibility of rapid catch-up releases before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,706Data di fine
31 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s strong implied probability of 70.5% stems from its Claude series, including recent Fable 5 and Mythos Preview variants, posting top scores on math-specific leaderboards such as Text Arena subcategories, LiveBench Mathematics, and MathArena evaluations through July and early August 2026. These models demonstrate superior performance on GSM8K, MATH, and AIME-style problems compared with GPT-5.6 Sol and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Lower odds for OpenAI (15.5%), Google (8.6%), and DeepSeek (6.8%) reflect their competitive but trailing benchmark results, while Chinese labs like Alibaba and Moonshot sit further back. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent frontier releases and agentic reasoning gains against the possibility of rapid catch-up releases before the October resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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