Traders are assigning Anthropic a 67% implied probability of holding the top AI model by the end of June, reflecting its recent Claude releases that have shown clear advantages in controlled output and benchmark consistency over rivals. Google sits at 22% as the market prices in steady Gemini progress, while OpenAI’s 5.5% share and the single-digit odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others capture the current competitive gap. Recent third-party evaluations continue to favor Anthropic’s large language model architecture for style adherence and reliability, reinforcing trader positioning ahead of expected summer updates. Any new capability demonstrations or independent leaderboard shifts in the next six weeks could quickly adjust these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di giugno? (Controllo stile attivato)
Quale azienda ha il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale alla fine di giugno? (Controllo stile attivato)
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,952 Vol.
$1,455,952 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Anthropic
67%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,952 Vol.
$1,455,952 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Anthropic
$30,400 Vol.
67%
$18,356 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$49,319 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,949 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,120 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,496 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,868 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,140 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,881 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,349 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,689 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,334 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,641 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,804 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders are assigning Anthropic a 67% implied probability of holding the top AI model by the end of June, reflecting its recent Claude releases that have shown clear advantages in controlled output and benchmark consistency over rivals. Google sits at 22% as the market prices in steady Gemini progress, while OpenAI’s 5.5% share and the single-digit odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others capture the current competitive gap. Recent third-party evaluations continue to favor Anthropic’s large language model architecture for style adherence and reliability, reinforcing trader positioning ahead of expected summer updates. Any new capability demonstrations or independent leaderboard shifts in the next six weeks could quickly adjust these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,455,952Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders are assigning Anthropic a 67% implied probability of holding the top AI model by the end of June, reflecting its recent Claude releases that have shown clear advantages in controlled output and benchmark consistency over rivals. Google sits at 22% as the market prices in steady Gemini progress, while OpenAI’s 5.5% share and the single-digit odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others capture the current competitive gap. Recent third-party evaluations continue to favor Anthropic’s large language model architecture for style adherence and reliability, reinforcing trader positioning ahead of expected summer updates. Any new capability demonstrations or independent leaderboard shifts in the next six weeks could quickly adjust these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,455,952Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are assigning Anthropic a 67% implied probability of holding the top AI model by the end of June, reflecting its recent Claude releases that have shown clear advantages in controlled output and benchmark consistency over rivals. Google sits at 22% as the market prices in steady Gemini progress, while OpenAI’s 5.5% share and the single-digit odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others capture the current competitive gap. Recent third-party evaluations continue to favor Anthropic’s large language model architecture for style adherence and reliability, reinforcing trader positioning ahead of expected summer updates. Any new capability demonstrations or independent leaderboard shifts in the next six weeks could quickly adjust these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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