Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led right-wing bloc, including far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, averaging near 50 seats and falling short of the 61 needed for a majority coalition. The opposing change bloc, anchored by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and alliances involving Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, and Yair Golan's Democrats, projects closer to or above that threshold in most surveys. A Supreme Court ruling due by October 4 on the Central Elections Committee's disqualification of Arab lists, along with surplus-vote agreements by October 16, could shift seat allocations and influence post-election coalition talks that may extend for weeks. Trader sentiment reflects this fragmented landscape and the potential for cross-bloc negotiations or stalemate.