Traders see an 82% implied probability that no team will reach three or more penalty shootouts in the knockout phase, underscoring how rarely matches extend to that point. In major soccer tournaments, most knockout ties are settled in regulation or extra time through defensive organization, set-piece execution, or attacking transitions rather than requiring penalties. Historical bracket data shows even deep runs typically feature at most one or two shootouts per side, as stronger squads and home/away dynamics limit repeated 120-minute deadlocks. Squad depth, recent form favoring decisive results, and the limited number of rounds further reduce the chance of any single team facing multiple extra-time scenarios.