Diplomatic efforts to advance Hamas disarmament and facilitate an Israeli withdrawal continue to shape positioning on any near-term major ground offensive in Gaza. As of mid-August 2026, U.S. envoy Jared Kushner held talks with both Israeli and Hamas representatives amid negotiations over a multi-point plan, while Israel has maintained that Hamas must surrender weapons before any full withdrawal proceeds. The most recent verifiable military action was a limited IDF airstrike on August 13 targeting a Hamas commander in northern Gaza—the first such strike in over a week—following a period of relative quiet. Netanyahu has publicly rejected elements of the proposed framework until disarmament conditions are met. These developments, alongside scheduled diplomatic contacts, represent the primary near-term variables that could influence escalation risks or de-escalation timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$750,257 Vol.
31 ott 2025
31 dicembre
15%
$750,257 Vol.
31 dicembre
$100,626 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to advance Hamas disarmament and facilitate an Israeli withdrawal continue to shape positioning on any near-term major ground offensive in Gaza. As of mid-August 2026, U.S. envoy Jared Kushner held talks with both Israeli and Hamas representatives amid negotiations over a multi-point plan, while Israel has maintained that Hamas must surrender weapons before any full withdrawal proceeds. The most recent verifiable military action was a limited IDF airstrike on August 13 targeting a Hamas commander in northern Gaza—the first such strike in over a week—following a period of relative quiet. Netanyahu has publicly rejected elements of the proposed framework until disarmament conditions are met. These developments, alongside scheduled diplomatic contacts, represent the primary near-term variables that could influence escalation risks or de-escalation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$750,257Data di fine
31 dic 2025Mercato aperto
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to advance Hamas disarmament and facilitate an Israeli withdrawal continue to shape positioning on any near-term major ground offensive in Gaza. As of mid-August 2026, U.S. envoy Jared Kushner held talks with both Israeli and Hamas representatives amid negotiations over a multi-point plan, while Israel has maintained that Hamas must surrender weapons before any full withdrawal proceeds. The most recent verifiable military action was a limited IDF airstrike on August 13 targeting a Hamas commander in northern Gaza—the first such strike in over a week—following a period of relative quiet. Netanyahu has publicly rejected elements of the proposed framework until disarmament conditions are met. These developments, alongside scheduled diplomatic contacts, represent the primary near-term variables that could influence escalation risks or de-escalation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$750,257Data di fine
31 dic 2025Mercato aperto
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts to advance Hamas disarmament and facilitate an Israeli withdrawal continue to shape positioning on any near-term major ground offensive in Gaza. As of mid-August 2026, U.S. envoy Jared Kushner held talks with both Israeli and Hamas representatives amid negotiations over a multi-point plan, while Israel has maintained that Hamas must surrender weapons before any full withdrawal proceeds. The most recent verifiable military action was a limited IDF airstrike on August 13 targeting a Hamas commander in northern Gaza—the first such strike in over a week—following a period of relative quiet. Netanyahu has publicly rejected elements of the proposed framework until disarmament conditions are met. These developments, alongside scheduled diplomatic contacts, represent the primary near-term variables that could influence escalation risks or de-escalation timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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