David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor on August 11, 2026, defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong by a razor-thin margin of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points (39.8% to 39.4%). Late consolidation of establishment support, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, helped Crowley overcome earlier polling deficits of nearly 20 points after re-entering the race. Hong had led surveys through early August but could not overcome turnout patterns and vote distribution that favored her opponent in key areas like Milwaukee. With results now certified at this narrow spread, trader consensus in the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects the confirmed outcome. Late certification adjustments or recounts remain theoretically possible but would require substantial shifts in already-tallied ballots to alter the bracket.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrowley 0.4–0.6% 98.6%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 1.6%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% <1%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$213,125 Vol.
$213,125 Vol.
12 ago 2026
Hong 1%+
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
<1%
Hong <0.2%
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
<1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
2%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
99%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
<1%
Crowley 1–1.2%
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
<1%
Crowley 2%+
<1%
Crowley 0.4–0.6% 98.6%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 1.6%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% <1%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$213,125 Vol.
$213,125 Vol.
12 ago 2026
Hong 1%+
$319 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
$232 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
$694 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
$716 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
$749 Vol.
<1%
Hong <0.2%
$576 Vol.
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
$37,514 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
$41,432 Vol.
2%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
$38,963 Vol.
99%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
$29,982 Vol.
1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
$26,575 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1–1.2%
$30,077 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
$1,194 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
$1,140 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
$1,181 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 2%+
$521 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor on August 11, 2026, defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong by a razor-thin margin of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points (39.8% to 39.4%). Late consolidation of establishment support, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, helped Crowley overcome earlier polling deficits of nearly 20 points after re-entering the race. Hong had led surveys through early August but could not overcome turnout patterns and vote distribution that favored her opponent in key areas like Milwaukee. With results now certified at this narrow spread, trader consensus in the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects the confirmed outcome. Late certification adjustments or recounts remain theoretically possible but would require substantial shifts in already-tallied ballots to alter the bracket.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volume
$213,125Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor on August 11, 2026, defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong by a razor-thin margin of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points (39.8% to 39.4%). Late consolidation of establishment support, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, helped Crowley overcome earlier polling deficits of nearly 20 points after re-entering the race. Hong had led surveys through early August but could not overcome turnout patterns and vote distribution that favored her opponent in key areas like Milwaukee. With results now certified at this narrow spread, trader consensus in the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects the confirmed outcome. Late certification adjustments or recounts remain theoretically possible but would require substantial shifts in already-tallied ballots to alter the bracket.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$213,125Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor on August 11, 2026, defeating state Rep. Francesca Hong by a razor-thin margin of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points (39.8% to 39.4%). Late consolidation of establishment support, including an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, helped Crowley overcome earlier polling deficits of nearly 20 points after re-entering the race. Hong had led surveys through early August but could not overcome turnout patterns and vote distribution that favored her opponent in key areas like Milwaukee. With results now certified at this narrow spread, trader consensus in the 0.4–0.6% bracket reflects the confirmed outcome. Late certification adjustments or recounts remain theoretically possible but would require substantial shifts in already-tallied ballots to alter the bracket.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
David Crowley vincerà le primarie democratiche per governatore del Wisconsin con meno dell'1% di scarto?
99%
Sì
David Crowley vincerà le primarie democratiche per il governatore del Wisconsin?
99%
Sì
Il candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni governatoriali del Wisconsin del 2026 con uno scarto tra 0% e 3%?
23%
Sì
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