South Africa leads the market for finishing last in 2026 World Cup Group A at 76% implied probability after its 0-2 opening loss to co-host Mexico, which left it with zero points and the group's worst goal difference. Czechia sits at 22.5% following its own 1-2 defeat to South Korea, though its slightly better goal difference offers a narrow edge in tiebreakers. The remaining matches—particularly the direct June 18 clash between South Africa and Czechia—will likely decide the bottom spot, while South Korea and Mexico remain heavy favorites to advance with minimal risk of finishing last. Traders price in these results as the dominant near-term drivers, with limited scope for major shifts absent surprising outcomes in the final group fixtures.