**In the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, extra time applies exclusively to the 32 knockout-stage matches (Round of 32 through final), while all group-stage fixtures can end in draws.** As of June 12, only the opening group matches have occurred, producing no extra-time opportunities yet, so trader focus centers on historical patterns and the larger field of 48 nations. Knockout ties after 90 minutes have historically occurred in roughly 20-35% of World Cup elimination games, driven by cautious tactics, defensive organization, and evenly matched sides. The 2022 tournament featured several high-profile extra-time decisions, including the final, underscoring the potential for late drama in tight contests. Key variables include the new Round of 32 (adding 16 extra knockout fixtures compared with prior editions), potential for underdogs to force stalemates, and any late fitness or tactical developments once the knockout bracket begins on June 28. Weather, travel across North America, and hydration-break rules may indirectly influence fatigue and scoring rates in later rounds. Market pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these structural and competitive factors rather than any single recent result.