Trader sentiment for the #2 AI lab market by end of October shows Meta holding the top implied probability at 39.5%, driven by its open-source large language model releases, rapid developer adoption, and integration across platforms. Google follows at 22.5% amid its search and cloud AI expansions, while OpenAI at 17% and Anthropic at 13% reflect sustained frontier model capabilities. The tight spread among leaders and many lower-probability options at 50% underscores high uncertainty, with upcoming model benchmarks, user growth metrics, and competitive feature releases serving as key swing factors in the final weeks before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Meta 40%
Google 22%
OpenAI 17%
Anthropic 13%

Meta
40%

22%

OpenAI
17%

Anthropic
13%

Alibaba
10%

Z.ai
3%

Moonshot
3%

SpaceXAI
6%

DeepSeek
2%

ByteDance
2%

Meituan
2%

Nvidia
1%

StepFun
1%

Xiaomi
1%

Thinky
1%

Mistral
1%

テンセント
1%

マイクロソフト
1%

MiniMax
1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Meta 40%
Google 22%
OpenAI 17%
Anthropic 13%

Meta
40%

22%

OpenAI
17%

Anthropic
13%

Alibaba
10%

Z.ai
3%

Moonshot
3%

SpaceXAI
6%

DeepSeek
2%

ByteDance
2%

Meituan
2%

Nvidia
1%

StepFun
1%

Xiaomi
1%

Thinky
1%

Mistral
1%

テンセント
1%

マイクロソフト
1%

MiniMax
1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the #2 AI lab market by end of October shows Meta holding the top implied probability at 39.5%, driven by its open-source large language model releases, rapid developer adoption, and integration across platforms. Google follows at 22.5% amid its search and cloud AI expansions, while OpenAI at 17% and Anthropic at 13% reflect sustained frontier model capabilities. The tight spread among leaders and many lower-probability options at 50% underscores high uncertainty, with upcoming model benchmarks, user growth metrics, and competitive feature releases serving as key swing factors in the final weeks before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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