Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict driving energy price spikes and renewed inflationary pressures, represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on 2026 world GDP growth. Official forecasts cluster in a narrow band, with the IMF’s July update at 3.0 percent, World Bank projections at 2.5 percent, and FocusEconomics consensus at 2.49 percent as of mid-August, reflecting downside risks from commodity disruptions and uneven AI-driven gains that offset softer trade and labor trends. This uncertainty produces closely matched implied probabilities between the ≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent bins, with swing factors including escalation of hostilities, monetary policy responses to sticky inflation, and revisions to emerging-market demand. Upcoming data releases on global trade volumes and inflation will likely influence further repricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.9％以下 30.9%
3.0% 28.0%
3.1% 15.6%
3.2％ 7.1%
$29,461 Vol.
$29,461 Vol.
2027/01/15
2.9％以下
31%
3.0%
28%
3.1%
16%
3.2％
7%
3.3%
6%
3.4％
5%
3.5%
3%
3.6％
4%
3.7％以上
1%
2.9％以下 30.9%
3.0% 28.0%
3.1% 15.6%
3.2％ 7.1%
$29,461 Vol.
$29,461 Vol.
2027/01/15
2.9％以下
$5,409 Vol.
31%
3.0%
$4,888 Vol.
28%
3.1%
$2,797 Vol.
16%
3.2％
$2,288 Vol.
7%
3.3%
$3,997 Vol.
6%
3.4％
$4,544 Vol.
5%
3.5%
$3,581 Vol.
3%
3.6％
$904 Vol.
4%
3.7％以上
$1,052 Vol.
1%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict driving energy price spikes and renewed inflationary pressures, represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on 2026 world GDP growth. Official forecasts cluster in a narrow band, with the IMF’s July update at 3.0 percent, World Bank projections at 2.5 percent, and FocusEconomics consensus at 2.49 percent as of mid-August, reflecting downside risks from commodity disruptions and uneven AI-driven gains that offset softer trade and labor trends. This uncertainty produces closely matched implied probabilities between the ≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent bins, with swing factors including escalation of hostilities, monetary policy responses to sticky inflation, and revisions to emerging-market demand. Upcoming data releases on global trade volumes and inflation will likely influence further repricing.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
マーケット開始日： Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
音量
$29,461終了日
2027/01/15マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict driving energy price spikes and renewed inflationary pressures, represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on 2026 world GDP growth. Official forecasts cluster in a narrow band, with the IMF’s July update at 3.0 percent, World Bank projections at 2.5 percent, and FocusEconomics consensus at 2.49 percent as of mid-August, reflecting downside risks from commodity disruptions and uneven AI-driven gains that offset softer trade and labor trends. This uncertainty produces closely matched implied probabilities between the ≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent bins, with swing factors including escalation of hostilities, monetary policy responses to sticky inflation, and revisions to emerging-market demand. Upcoming data releases on global trade volumes and inflation will likely influence further repricing.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
音量
$29,461終了日
2027/01/15マーケット開始日
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict driving energy price spikes and renewed inflationary pressures, represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on 2026 world GDP growth. Official forecasts cluster in a narrow band, with the IMF’s July update at 3.0 percent, World Bank projections at 2.5 percent, and FocusEconomics consensus at 2.49 percent as of mid-August, reflecting downside risks from commodity disruptions and uneven AI-driven gains that offset softer trade and labor trends. This uncertainty produces closely matched implied probabilities between the ≤2.9 percent and 3.0 percent bins, with swing factors including escalation of hostilities, monetary policy responses to sticky inflation, and revisions to emerging-market demand. Upcoming data releases on global trade volumes and inflation will likely influence further repricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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